# arXiv: q-fin

Quantitative Finance (q-fin) updates on the arXiv.org e-print archive
Updated: 13 min 56 sec ago

### Fast Estimation of True Bounds on Bermudan Option Prices under Jump-diffusion Processes. (arXiv:1305.4321v1 [q-fin.CP])

Mon, 05/20/2013 - 21:45

Fast pricing of American-style options has been a difficult problem since it was first introduced to financial markets in 1970s, especially when the underlying stocks' prices follow some jump-diffusion processes. In this paper, we propose a new algorithm to generate tight upper bounds on the Bermudan option price without nested simulation, under the jump-diffusion setting. By exploiting the martingale representation theorem for jump processes on the dual martingale, we are able to explore the unique structure of the optimal dual martingale and construct an approximation that preserves the martingale property. The resulting upper bound estimator avoids the nested Monte Carlo simulation suffered by the original primal-dual algorithm, therefore significantly improves the computational efficiency. Theoretical analysis is provided to guarantee the quality of the martingale approximation. Numerical experiments are conducted to verify the efficiency of our proposed algorithm.

### Capital Requirements with Defaultable Securities. (arXiv:1203.4610v4 [q-fin.RM] UPDATED)

Mon, 05/20/2013 - 21:45

We study capital requirements for bounded financial positions defined as the minimum amount of capital to invest in a chosen eligible asset targeting a pre-specified acceptability test. We allow for general acceptance sets and general eligible assets, including defaultable bonds. Since the payoff of these assets is not necessarily bounded away from zero the resulting risk measures cannot be transformed into cash-additive risk measures by a change of numeraire. However, extending the range of eligible assets is important because, as exemplified by the recent financial crisis, assuming the existence of default-free bonds may be unrealistic. We focus on finiteness and continuity properties of these general risk measures. As an application, we discuss capital requirements based on Value-at-Risk and Tail-Value-at-Risk acceptability, the two most important acceptability criteria in practice. Finally, we prove that there is no optimal choice of the eligible asset. Our results and our examples show that a theory of capital requirements allowing for general eligible assets is richer than the standard theory of cash-additive risk measures.

### Robust Strategies for Optimal Order Execution in the Almgren-Chriss Framework. (arXiv:1204.2717v4 [q-fin.TR] UPDATED)

Mon, 05/20/2013 - 21:45

Assuming geometric Brownian motion as unaffected price process $S^0$, Gatheral & Schied (2011) derived a strategy for optimal order execution that reacts in a sensible manner on market changes but can still be computed in closed form. Here we will investigate the robustness of this strategy with respect to misspecification of the law of $S^0$. We prove the surprising result that the strategy remains optimal whenever $S^0$ is a square-integrable martingale. We then analyze the optimization criterion of Gatheral & Schied (2011) in the case in which $S^0$ is any square-integrable semimartingale and we give a closed-form solution to this problem. As a corollary, we find an explicit solution to the problem of minimizing the expected liquidation costs when the unaffected price process is a square-integrable semimartingale. The solutions to our problems are found by stochastically solving a finite-fuel control problem without assumptions of Markovianity.

### An algorithm for the orthogonal decomposition of financial return data. (arXiv:1206.2333v2 [q-fin.PM] UPDATED)

Mon, 05/20/2013 - 21:45

We present an algorithm for the decomposition of periodic financial return data into orthogonal factors of expected return and "systemic", "productive", and "nonproductive" risk. Generally, when the number of funds does not exceed the number of periods, the expected return of a portfolio is an affine function of its productive risk.

### Online Portfolio Selection: A Survey. (arXiv:1212.2129v2 [q-fin.CP] UPDATED)

Mon, 05/20/2013 - 21:45

Online portfolio selection is a fundamental problem in computational finance, which has been extensively studied across several research communities, including finance, statistics, artificial intelligence, machine learning, and data mining, etc. This article aims to provide a comprehensive survey and a structural understanding of published online portfolio selection techniques. From an online machine learning perspective, we first formulate online portfolio selection as a sequential decision problem, and then survey a variety of state-of-the-art approaches, which are grouped into several major categories, including benchmarks, "Follow-the-Winner" approaches, "Follow-the-Loser" approaches, "Pattern-Matching" based approaches, and "Meta-Learning Algorithms". In addition to the problem formulation and related algorithms, we also discuss the relationship of these algorithms with the Capital Growth theory in order to better understand the similarities and differences of their underlying trading ideas. This article aims to provide a timely and comprehensive survey for both machine learning and data mining researchers in academia and quantitative portfolio managers in the financial industry to help them understand the state-of-the-art and facilitate their research and practical applications. We also discuss some open issues and evaluate some emerging new trends for future research directions.

### A unified approach to pricing and risk management of equity and credit risk. (arXiv:1212.5395v2 [q-fin.PR] UPDATED)

Mon, 05/20/2013 - 21:45

We propose a unified framework for equity and credit risk modeling, where the default time is a doubly stochastic random time with intensity driven by an underlying affine factor process. This approach allows for flexible interactions between the defaultable stock price, its stochastic volatility and the default intensity, while maintaining full analytical tractability. We characterise all risk-neutral measures which preserve the affine structure of the model and show that risk management as well as pricing problems can be dealt with efficiently by shifting to suitable survival measures. As an example, we consider a jump-to-default extension of the Heston stochastic volatility model.

### The Effect of Non-Smooth Payoffs on the Penalty Approximation of American Options. (arXiv:1008.0836v3 [q-fin.CP] CROSS LISTED)

Mon, 05/20/2013 - 21:45

This article combines various methods of analysis to draw a comprehensive picture of penalty approximations to the value, hedge ratio, and optimal exercise strategy of American options. While convergence of the penalised solution for sufficiently smooth obstacles is well established in the literature, sharp rates of convergence and particularly the effect of gradient discontinuities (i.e., the omni-present `kinks' in option payoffs) on this rate have not been fully analysed so far. This effect becomes important not least when using penalisation as a numerical technique. We use matched asymptotic expansions to characterise the boundary layers between exercise and hold regions, and to compute first order corrections for representative payoffs on a single asset following a diffusion or jump-diffusion model. Furthermore, we demonstrate how the viscosity theory framework in [Jakobsen, 2006] can be applied to this setting to derive upper and lower bounds on the value. In a small extension to [Bensoussan & Lions, 1982], we derive weak convergence rates also for option sensitivities for convex payoffs under jump-diffusion models. Finally, we outline applications of the results, including accuracy improvements by extrapolation.

### A control problem with fuel constraint and Dawson-Watanabe superprocesses. (arXiv:1207.5809v6 [math.PR] UPDATED)

Mon, 05/20/2013 - 21:45

We solve a class of control problems with fuel constraint by means of the log-Laplace transforms of $J$-functionals of Dawson--Watanabe superprocesses. This solution is related to the superprocess solution of quasilinear parabolic PDEs with singular terminal condition. For the probabilistic verification proof, we develop sharp bounds on the blow-up behavior of log-Laplace functionals of $J$-functionals, which might be of independent interest.

### A First-Order BSPDE for Swing Option Pricing. (arXiv:1305.3988v1 [q-fin.PR])

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 21:45

We study an optimal control problem related to swing option pricing in a general non-Markovian setting in continuous time. As a main result we show that the value process solves a first-order non-linear backward stochastic partial differential equation. Based on this result we can characterize the set of optimal controls and derive a dual minimization problem.

### A hot-potato game under transient price impact and some effects of a transaction tax. (arXiv:1305.4013v1 [q-fin.TR])

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 21:45

Building on observations by Sch\"oneborn (2008), we consider a Nash equilibrium between two high-frequency traders in a simple market impact model with transient price impact and additional quadratic transaction costs. We show that for small transaction costs the high-frequency traders engage in a "hot-potato game", in which the same asset position is sold back and forth. We then identify a critical value for the size of the transaction costs above which all oscillations disappear and strategies become buy-only or sell-only. Numerical simulations show that for both traders the expected costs can be lower with transaction costs than without. Moreover, the costs can increase with the trading frequency when there are no transaction costs, but decrease with the trading frequency when transaction costs are sufficiently high. We argue that these effects occur due to the need of protection against predatory trading in the regime of low transaction costs.

### Economics 2.0: The Natural Step towards A Self-Regulating, Participatory Market Society. (arXiv:1305.4078v1 [q-fin.GN])

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 21:45

Despite all our great advances in science, technology and financial innovations, many societies today are struggling with a financial, economic and public spending crisis, over-regulation, and mass unemployment, as well as lack of sustainability and innovation. Can we still rely on conventional economic thinking or do we need a new approach?

I argue that, as the complexity of socio-economic systems increases, networked decision-making and bottom-up self-regulation will be more and more important features. It will be explained why, besides the "homo economicus" with strictly self-regarding preferences, natural selection has also created a "homo socialis" with other-regarding preferences. While the "homo economicus" optimizes the own prospects in separation, the decisions of the "homo socialis" are self-determined, but interconnected, a fact that may be characterized by the term "networked minds". Notably, the "homo socialis" manages to earn higher payoffs than the "homo socialis".

I show that the "homo economicus" and the "homo socialis" imply a different kind of dynamics and distinct aggregate outcomes. Therefore, next to the traditional economics for the "homo economicus" ("economics 1.0"), a complementary theory must be developed for the "homo socialis". This economic theory might be called "economics 2.0" or "socionomics". The names are justified, because the Web 2.0 is currently promoting a transition to a new market organization, which benefits from social media platforms and could be characterized as "participatory market society". To thrive, the "homo socialis" requires suitable institutional settings such a particular kinds of reputation systems, which will be sketched in this paper. I also propose a new kind of money, so-called "qualified money", which may overcome some of the problems of our current financial system.

### Risk-minimization and hedging claims on a jump-diffusion market model, Feynman-Kac Theorem and PIDE. (arXiv:1305.4132v1 [q-fin.PR])

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 21:45

At first, we solve a problem of finding a risk-minimizing hedging strategy on a general market with ratings. Next, we find a solution to this problem on Markovian market with ratings on which prices are influenced by additional factors and rating, and behavior of this system is described by SDE driven by Wiener process and compensated Poisson random measure and claims depend on rating. To find a tool to calculate hedging strategy we prove a Feynman-Kac type theorem. This result is of independent interest and has many applications, since it enables to calculate some conditional expectations using related PIDE's. We illustrate our theory on two examples of market. The first is a general exponential L\'{e}vy model with stochastic volatility, and the second is a generalization of exponential L\'{e}vy model with regime-switching.

### A Model for Stock Returns and Volatility. (arXiv:1305.4173v1 [q-fin.ST])

Sun, 05/19/2013 - 21:45

We prove that Student's t-distribution provides one of the better fits to returns of S&P component stocks and the generalized inverse gamma distribution best fits VIX and VXO volatility data. We further argue that a more accurate measure of the volatility may be possible based on the fact that stock returns can be understood as the product distribution of the volatility and normal distributions. We find Brown noise in VIX and VXO time series and explain the mean and the variance of the relaxation times on approach to the steady-state distribution.

### From Minority Game to Black & Scholes pricing. (arXiv:1205.2521v2 [q-fin.TR] CROSS LISTED)

Thu, 05/16/2013 - 21:45

In this paper we study the continuum time dynamics of a stock in a market where agents behavior is modeled by a Minority Game and a Grand Canonical Minority Game. The dynamics derived is a generalized geometric Brownian motion; from the Black & Scholes formula the calibration of both the Minority Game and the Grand Canonical Minority Game, by means of their characteristic parameters, is performed. We conclude that for both games the asymmetric phase with characteristic parameters close to critical ones is coherent with options implied volatility market.

### Monte Carlo approximation to optimal investment. (arXiv:1305.3433v1 [q-fin.CP])

Wed, 05/15/2013 - 21:45

This paper sets up a methodology for approximately solving optimal investment problems using duality methods combined with Monte Carlo simulations. In particular, we show how to tackle high dimensional problems in incomplete markets, where traditional methods fail due to the curse of dimensionality.

### Linear stochastic volatility models. (arXiv:0909.4765v2 [q-fin.PR] UPDATED)

Wed, 05/15/2013 - 21:45

In this paper we investigate general linear stochastic volatility models with correlated Brownian noises. In such models the asset price satisfies a linear SDE with coefficient of linearity being the volatility process. This class contains among others Black-Scholes model, a log-normal stochastic volatility model and Heston stochastic volatility model. For a linear stochastic volatility model we derive representations for the probability density function of the arbitrage price of a financial asset and the prices of European call and put options.

A closed-form formulae for the density function and the prices of European call and put options are given for log-normal stochastic volatility model. We also obtain present some new results for Heston and extended Heston stochastic volatility models.

### Stochastic Target Games with Controlled Loss. (arXiv:1206.6325v2 [math.OC] UPDATED)

Wed, 05/15/2013 - 21:45

We study a stochastic game where one player tries to find a strategy such that the state process reaches a target of controlled-loss-type, no matter which action is chosen by the other player. We provide, in a general setup, a relaxed geometric dynamic programming for this problem and derive, for the case of a controlled SDE, the corresponding dynamic programming equation in the sense of viscosity solutions. As an example, we consider a problem of partial hedging under Knightian uncertainty.

### Performance Analysis of Hybrid Forecasting Model In Stock Market Forecasting. (arXiv:1209.4608v2 [q-fin.ST] UPDATED)

Wed, 05/15/2013 - 21:45

This paper presents performance analysis of hybrid model comprise of concordance and Genetic Programming (GP) to forecast financial market with some existing models. This scheme can be used for in depth analysis of stock market. Different measures of concordances such as Kendalls Tau, Ginis Mean Difference, Spearmans Rho, and weak interpretation of concordance are used to search for the pattern in past that look similar to present. Genetic Programming is then used to match the past trend to present trend as close as possible. Then Genetic Program estimates what will happen next based on what had happened next. The concept is validated using financial time series data (S&P 500 and NASDAQ indices) as sample data sets. The forecasted result is then compared with standard ARIMA model and other model to analyse its performance.

### Scaling symmetry, renormalization, and time series modeling. (arXiv:1305.3243v2 [q-fin.ST] UPDATED)

Wed, 05/15/2013 - 21:45

We present and discuss a stochastic model of financial assets dynamics based on the idea of an inverse renormalization group strategy. With this strategy we construct the multivariate distributions of elementary returns based on the scaling with time of the probability density of their aggregates. In its simplest version the model is the product of an endogenous auto-regressive component and a random rescaling factor embodying exogenous influences. Mathematical properties like increments' stationarity and ergodicity can be proven. Thanks to the relatively low number of parameters, model calibration can be conveniently based on a method of moments, as exemplified in the case of historical data of the S&P500 index. The calibrated model accounts very well for many stylized facts, like volatility clustering, power law decay of the volatility autocorrelation function, and multiscaling with time of the aggregated return distribution. In agreement with empirical evidence in finance, the dynamics is not invariant under time reversal and, with suitable generalizations, skewness of the return distribution and leverage effects can be included. The analytical tractability of the model opens interesting perspectives for applications, for instance in terms of obtaining closed formulas for derivative pricing. Further important features are: The possibility of making contact, in certain limits, with auto-regressive models widely used in finance; The possibility of partially resolving the endogenous and exogenous components of the volatility, with consistent results when applied to historical series.

### Empirical Analysis of Stochastic Volatility Model by Hybrid Monte Carlo Algorithm. (arXiv:1305.3184v1 [q-fin.CP])

Tue, 05/14/2013 - 21:45

The stochastic volatility model is one of volatility models which infer latent volatility of asset returns. The Bayesian inference of the stochastic volatility (SV) model is performed by the hybrid Monte Carlo (HMC) algorithm which is superior to other Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods in sampling volatility variables. We perform the HMC simulations of the SV model for two liquid stock returns traded on the Tokyo Stock Exchange and measure the volatilities of those stock returns. Then we calculate the accuracy of the volatility measurement using the realized volatility as a proxy of the true volatility and compare the SV model with the GARCH model which is one of other volatility models. Using the accuracy calculated with the realized volatility we find that empirically the SV model performs better than the GARCH model.